FOMC begins

Outlook 03/19: U.S. stock futures fell Tuesday as traders took in the latest announcements from Nvidia artificial intelligence conference. Investors also turned its eyes to Washington as the Federal Reserve kicked off its two-day policy meeting. Several Fed officials have indicated there is no immediate hurry to cut rates, which is supported by the recent pickup in monthly inflation and resilient payrolls. In his testimony to congress just before the blackout period, Fed Chair Powell said that the committee is “not far” from cutting rates and needs a “little bit more data” to become confident inflation is moving sustainably towards 2%. Fed’s Powell in the press conference following the last rate decision, said: “Based on the meeting today (January 31st), I don’t think it is likely that we will have a rate cut in March.”

/ESM24 (JUN 2024): YVAH 5234 YPOC 5223 YVAL 5219 GAP 5215.50

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bearish, and overnight continues on that way, moving below value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for today:

A) If market remains above HVE 5193 with bullish internals, buy towards GAP 5215 YVAL 5219 YVAH 5234 and YHOD 5240.

B) If market moves below HVE 5193 with bearish internals, sell towards GAP 5184 YLOD 5182 HVE 5157 and PBT 5136.

Note: Overnight inventory is 95% bearish. The expected action is a counter-auction; failure to see the counter-auction would be an indication of potential trend day. Market opens below value and if it begins to trade within value, VAR comes into play. 

Market Movers

1:00 PM 20-Year Bond Auction
4:00 PM Treasury International Capital 

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