Outlook 05/01: U.S. stock futures slipped Wednesday as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s rate policy decision. Traders are now looking toward the Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday afternoon. The central bank is widely expected to hold interest rates steady, according to fed funds futures pricing data. Investors will be looking for clues from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on what needs to happen before rates can come down. On the economic front, traders can expect the job openings and labor turnover survey for March on Wednesday. ADP’s private employment data for April, essentially a precursor to Friday’s jobs report, showed more workers added in April.
/ESM24 (JUN 2024): YVAH 5125 YPOC 5095 YVAL 5054 GAP 5064.50
/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bearish, and overnight continues on that way, moving below previous value/range, so these're the opening and initial balance options for today:
A) If market moves above YLOD 5051 with bullish internals, buy towards GAP-ONH 5065 YPOC 5095 and YVAH-HVE 5125.
B) If market moves below YLOD 5051 with bearish internals, sell towards ONL-VPOC 5037 GAP 5004 and 4963-4933.
Note:
FOMC days are two separate sessions. The AM session tends to involve a tightening price range and lower activity. Trade setups that work well in the AM, may fail completely in the afternoon, resulting in significant losses. Today is NOT the day to trade aggressively. On these high volatility days, your first trading rule is 'manage your risk', sizing small with less /ES emini contracts or using /MES micro futures.
Market Movers
9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 Construction Spending
10:00 JOLTS
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
2:00 PM FOMC Announcement
2:30 PM Chairman Press Conference
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