FOMC day

Outlook 06/12: U.S. stock futures jump on cool inflation report ahead of Fed decision. The consumer price index was unchanged for the month of May, lower than estimate for a 0.1% monthly increase. Year over year, the inflation yardstick increased 3.3%, which also came in below expectations and a represented a slowing from the prior 3.4% pace. Monthly and yearly numbers for core CPI, which excludes the volatile prices associated with energy and food, were also lower than anticipated. The 10-year Treasury yield tumbled back below 4.3% as inflation concerns eased ahead of Wednesday’s conclusion of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting. The Fed will provide new forecasts for rate cuts and inflation Wednesday afternoon followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

/ESM24 (JUN 2024): YVAH 5367 YPOC 5355 YVAL 5335 GAP 5385.25

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed balanced, but overnight, after CPI data, looks 100% bullish, moving above previous value/range, so these're the opening and initial balance options for today:

A) If market remains above ON-HVE 5420 with bullish internals, buy towards ONH 5433.

B) If market moves below HVE 5420 with bearish internals, sell towards YHOD-GAP 5385.

NoteFOMC days are two separate sessions. The AM session tends to involve a tightening price range and lower activity. Trade setups that work well in the AM, may fail completely in the afternoon, resulting in significant losses. Today is NOT the day to trade aggressively. On these high volatility days, your first trading rule is 'manage your risk', sizing small with less /ES emini contracts or using /MES micro futures.

Market Movers

10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
2:00 PM FOMC Announcement
2:00 PM Treasury Statement
2:30 PM Chairman Press Conference 

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