After FOMC

Outlook 12/19: Stock futures bounced Thursday after the FOMC revised rate outlook for next year. Stocks plunged Wednesday after the Federal Reserve struck a heavy blow to the roaring bull market, signaling that it was likely to only cut interest rates twice next year, down from the four reductions that had been penciled in during their last forecast in September. The central bank also trimmed its benchmark overnight borrowing rate a quarter percentage point Wednesday, to a target range of 4.25% to 4.5%, but the question now is what policymakers will do in 2025. Chair Jerome Powell didn’t offer investors much in the way of immediate comfort. “We’re at 4.3% and I think it’s a well-calibrated rate for us to continue to make progress on inflation while keeping a strong labor market,” Powell said at the press conference.

ESH25 (MAR2025): YVAH 6148 YPOC 6136 YVAL 6012 GAP 5930

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bearish, but overnight looks more bullish, moving within previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:

A) If market remains above HVE 5974 with bullish internals, buy towards HVEs 5995-6036-6062-6086-6108 and FOMC SoC 6136 magnet.

B) If market moves below HVE 5974 with bearish internals, sell towards HVE-GAP 5930 YLOD 5906 HVE 5850 and GAP 5820 magnet.

Note: FOMC day always offer an overreaction, Today is the real reaction to yesterday news, and Tomorrow is when we have confirmation of the next trend. On these high volatility days, a lot of money could be made and lost but your first trading rule is 'manage your risk', sizing small with less /ES emini contracts or using /MES micro futures. 

Market Movers

10:00 AM Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM Leading Indicators
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 AM Kansas City Fed Survey
01:00 PM 5-Year TIPS Auction
04:00 PM Treasury International Capital
04:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet 

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