Triple Witching

Outlook 12/20: Stock futures fall as market heads for worst week since March 2023. Weighing on sentiment Friday was the failure Thursday night of a Trump-endorsed House Republican measure to fund the government for three months and avert a government shutdown. Without a deal, a partial shutdown is slated to start Friday night. The Federal Reserve indicating this week that the central bank would cut interest rates fewer times next year than traders’ want was the catalyst for the market’s plunge on Wednesday. The Fed said it wants to tread a bit more cautiously with its rate-cutting campaign with inflation remaining stubborn. But investors got a bit of good news on the inflation front Friday that helped ease some of the selling. November’s reading of the personal consumption expenditures price index increased 2.4% year-over-year. That was a tad less than economists expected.

ESH25 (MAR2025): YVAH 5982 YPOC 5963 YVAL 5947 GAP 5932.50

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bearish, and overnight continues on that way (PBT-GAP 5820), moving below previous value/range, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:

A) If market remains above HVE 5895 with bullish internals, buy towards GAP 5932 magnet YVAL 5947 and YVAH 5982.

B) If market moves below HVE 5895 with bearish internals, sell towards ONL 5866 HVE 5850 and PBT-GAP 5820 magnet.

Note: It's triple witching day, which refers to the simultaneous expiration of stock options, market index options and market index futures. The event can lead to higher volatility and more trading volumes, with high-frequency traders trying to take advantage for quick arbitrage opportunities. It happens four times a year - on the third Friday of March, June, September and December - with much of the increases in activity taking place during the last hour of trading, otherwise known as the "witching hour." On these high volatility days, a lot of money could be made and lost but your first trading rule is 'manage your risk', sizing small with less /ES emini contracts or using /MES micro futures. 

Market Movers

10:00 AM Consumer Sentiment
01:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count 

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