China talks

Outlook 05/09: Stock futures gain as President Donald Trump suggested many trade deals are near, while also endorsing cutting the tariff rate on China before weekend talks. The president also wrote on Truth Social that an “80% Tariff on China seems right” ahead of talks lead by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent with China counterparts in Switzerland this weekend. But Bonds market are giving a red flag alert. Yields are screaming. The Fed is boxed in. And the U.S. government is getting a 'margin call' from the global market. It’s a bond market protest a sharp repricing of U.S. fiscal credibility, inflation risk, and institutional confidence. Rolling over US debt at these levels will send interest expense soaring forcing the Fed to cut rates earlier.

ESM25 (JUN2025): YVAH 5736 YPOC 5720 YVAL 5687 GAP 5685

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bearish, but overnight looks more balanced, moving within previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:

A) If market moves above HVE 5710 with bullish internals/delta, buy towards ONH 5715 HVEs 5744-5759 and PBT 5572 magnet.

B) If market moves below HVE 5710 with bearish internals/delta, sell towards GAP 5685 ONL 5665 and GAP 5651 magnet.

Note: FOMC day always offer an overreaction, Yesterday was the real reaction to FOMC news, and Today is when we have some confirmation about next wave. Market opens inside value. Don't be 'too anxious'. Let the market lead. It's 'Capital Preservation Friday'. Try to be calm and focus rather than thinking about your P/L account. 

Market Movers

10:00 ET Fed’s Goolsbee 
11:30 ET Fed’s Williams and Fed’s Waller
13:00 ET White House Press briefing 
16:00 ET Trump signs executive orders

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