Outlook 05/07: Stock futures rise on Wednesday as investors monitored the latest updates on U.S. trade negotiations and looked toward the Federal Reserve interest rate announcement expected later in the day. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and top trade official Jamieson Greer would meet with their Chinese counterparts this week in Switzerland. Investors took that as a positive on the trade front after the turbulent market action following President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement last month. That action comes as investors gear up for the Fed’s interest rate decision slated for 2 p.m. ET. Fed funds futures are pricing in a nearly 97% likelihood that the central bank holds the borrowing rate steady.
ESM25 (JUN2025): YVAH 5650 YPOC 5642 YVAL 5625 GAP 5625
/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed balanced, and overnight continues on that way, moving within previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:
A) If market moves above HVE 5631 with bullish internals/delta, buy towards YVAH-HVE 5650 HVE 5670 and GAP 5711 magnet.
B) If market moves below HVE 5631 with bearish internals/delta, sell towards GAP-YVAL 5625 magnet and HVE-ONL 5608.
Note:
FOMC days are two separate sessions. The AM session tends to involve a tightening price range and lower activity. Trade setups that work well in the AM, may fail completely in the afternoon, resulting in significant losses. Today is NOT the day to trade aggressively. On these high volatility days, a lot of money could be made and lost but your first trading rule is 'manage your risk', sizing small with less /ES emini contracts or using /MES micro futures.
Market Movers
10:30 ET US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
14:00 ET US Interest Rate Decision Forecast unchanged at 4.5%
14:30 ET FOMC Chair Powell Press Conference
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