Before FOMC

Outlook 05/06: Stock futures fall Tuesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and watched for signs of progress in global trade deals. The Fed is widely expected to keep rates steady on Wednesday, with Fed Funds futures trading suggests just a 2.7% chance of the central bank cutting rates. Still, traders will be listening for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on his economic outlook. Tariff uncertainty continues to weigh on the markets. Trump is scheduled for meetings with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Tuesday, marking the start of negotiations between the two leaders since since Carney assumed. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that “we’re very close to some deals”. Nonetheless, no official trade deals between the U.S. and its trading partners have yet been announced. 

ESM25 (JUN2025): YVAH 5698 YPOC 5691 YVAL 5669 GAP 5669

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed balanced, but overnight looks bearish (PBT 5584), moving below previous value/range, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:

A) If market moves above HVE 5631 with bullish internals/delta, buy towards GAP-YVAL 5669 YVAH 5698 and GAP 5711 all magnets.

B) If market moves below HVE 5631 with bearish internals/delta, sell towards GAP 5609 magnet and PBT 5584 magnet and HVE 5560.

Note: Overnight inventory is 100% bearish. The expected action is a counter-auction. Failure to see the counter-auction would be an indication of potential bearish trend day. Market opens below value and if it begins to trade within value, VAR setup comes in play. 

Market Movers

10:00 ET US Treasury Secretary Bessent testifies in Congress.
11:30 ET Trump meets Canada’s PM Carney
11:45 ET Trump Meeting with the Prime Minister of Canada
12:00 ET US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook Report
12:15 ET Trump Lunch with the Prime Minister of Canada
13:00 ET US sells $42 bln 10-Year Notes
15:30 ET Trump participates in a FIFA Task Force Meeting
16:15 ET AMD Q1 2025 Earnings Est. EPS: 94c

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