Outlook 05/05: Stock futures fall to start the week as investors hoping for news of trade deals instead had to grapple with another set of tariffs after President Donald Trump announced surprise levies on movies made outside the U.S. Market is also looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting beginning on Tuesday, with a rate decision expected Wednesday. Fed funds futures trading points to just a 3.2% chance of a rate cut. Still, traders are keeping a close eye on any commentary from the central bank or Fed Chair Jerome Powell on the outlook for the economy amid heightened uncertainty stemming from the trade war.
ESM25 (JUN2025): YVAH 5720 YPOC 5713 YVAL 5689 GAP 5711
/ES Plan: Last session market closed bullish (PBT 5772), but overnight looks bearish (PBT 5625), moving below previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:
A) If market moves above HVE 5671 with bullish internals/delta, buy towards YVAL 5689 GAP 5711 magnet and YVAH 5720 magnet.
B) If market moves below HVE 5671 with bearish internals/delta, sell towards HVE 5650 PBT 5625 magnet and GAP 5609 magnet.
Note: Overnight inventory is 100% bearish. The expected action is a counter-auction. Failure to see the counter-auction would be an indication of potential bearish trend day. Market opens below value and if it begins to trade within value, VAR setup comes in play.
Market Movers
09:45 ET US S&P Services PMI April Final Forecast: 51.2
10:00 ET US ISM Services PMI for April Forecast: 50.3
11:00 ET US Treasury Sec. Bessent Speaks
13:00 ET US sells $58 bln 3-Year Notes Auction
13:00 ET Trump delivers a Sports Announcement
15:00 ET Trump signs Executive Orders
15:30 ET Trump welcomes home a returned Citizen
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