Re-escalation

Outlook 05/23: Stock futures declined early Friday after President Donald Trump ramped up his trade fight again, slapping a tariff on Apple for foreign-made iPhones and recommending new stiffer duties on the European Union. Re-escalation of trade war rhetoric started when President Trump said trade discussions with the EU “are going nowhere” and so he’s “recommending a straight 50% tariff on the European Union, starting on June 1, 2025.” Investors were buying stocks on speculation that more agreements would be rolling out with various nations during this three-month pause period. Friday’s actions by Trump could mean that hope was misplaced.

ESM25 (JUN2025): YVAH 5880 YPOC 5860 YVAL 5850 GAP 5859

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed balanced, but overnight, after Trump re-escalation, looks more bearish, moving well below previous value/range, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:

A) If market moves above ON-POC 5776 with bullish internals/delta, buy towards HVE 5808 YLOD 5830 YVAL-SoC 5850 and GAP 5859 magnet.

B) If market moves below ON-POC 5776 with bearish internals/delta, sell towards ONL 5756 HVE 5744-5730-5709-5671 and GAP 5651 magnet.

Note: Overnight inventory is 100% bearish. The expected action is a counter-auction. Failure to see the counter-auction would be an indication of potential bearish trend day. Remember it's preservation capital Friday. Less is more.

Market Movers

10:00 ET US New Home Sales for April Forecast: 0.695M

09:35 ET Fed’s Musalem and Fed’s Schmid speak. Q&A.

12:00 ET Fed’s Cook speaks, no Q&A.

13:00 ET Trump Signs Executive Orders

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