Outlook 05/16: Stock futures rise as Treasury yields moved lower. The U.S. Treasury held its first official debt buyback in decades. The numbers speak volumes: $30.022 billion in bonds were offered by the market. The Treasury only accepted $4 billion. Treasury is swimming in debt, like $34.6 trillion worth, and they're trying to manage it without making it look like they're printing money (which is called Quantitative Easing, or QE for short). Friday could see an uptick in volatility due to a large amount of options contracts that are set to expire. More than $2.8 trillion of notional options exposure will expire on Friday, the biggest such number on record for a May trading day.
ESM25 (JUN2025): YVAH 5942 YPOC 5929 YVAL 5898 GAP 5937
/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bullish (PBT 5976), and overnight continues on that way (PBT 5973), moving a few ticks above previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:
