Yields spike

Outlook 05/19: Stock futures tumbled on Monday as a downgrade of the U.S.′ credit rating by Moody’s caused Treasury yields to spike. Moody’s on Friday after the bell bumped the country’s rating down by one notch to Aa1 from Aaa, bringing the agency in line with its peers. The firm cited the financing challenges tied to the federal government’s growing budget deficit and the ramifications of rolling over existing U.S. debts in a period of high borrowing costs. The debt downgrade pressured bond prices, sending yields higher, at a time when the economy is already under pressure from President Donald Trump’s unfolding tariff policy. The 30-year U.S. bond yield traded above 5% on Monday and the 10-year yield topped 4.5%, levels that pressured equity markets last month and helped cause Trump to back off his stiffest tariffs. Loans for houses, cars and credit cards track these rates.

ESM25 (JUN2025): YVAH 5965 YPOC 5942 YVAL 5930 GAP 5972

/ES Plan: Last session market closed bearish, and overnight continues on that way (PBT 5880), moving a below previous value/range, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:

A) If market moves above HVE 5895 with bullish internals/delta, buy towards YVAL-HVE 5930 and YVAH 5965 VAR magnet.

B) If market moves below HVE 5895 with bearish internals/delta, sell towards PBT 5880 magnet and HVEs 5875-5852.

Note: If market opens below value and it begins to trade within value, VAR comes into play.

Market Movers

13:15 ET Fed Logan
13:30 ET Fed’s Kashkari
14:45 ET Fed’s Bostic
15:00 ET Trump at bill signing.

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