FOMC week

Outlook 06/16: Stock futures rebound early Monday as investors were optimistic that the conflict between Israel and Iran may remain contained. The spike in oil prices due to the escalating conflict also eased. WTI crude oil futures fell more than 1% to $72.09 a barrel after trading above $77 earlier in the overnight session. Investors will monitor manufacturing survey data due Monday morning, which comes ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interested rate decision on Wednesday. Fed funds futures are pricing in a nearly 100% likelihood of the central bank keeping rates unchanged, even as President Donald Trump has been pressuring Fed Chief Jerome Powell for a rate cut. Higher oil prices from the Middle East conflict likely further reduce the odds the Fed will ease monetary policy anytime soon.

ESM25 (JUN2025): YVAH 6011 YPOC 5982 YVAL 5968 GAP 5988

/ES Plan: Last session market closed balanced, but reopening looks bullish (PBT 6120), moving above previous value/range, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:

A) If market moves remains above HVE 6068 with bullish internals/delta, buy towards HVE 6108 PBT 6120 GAP 6154 and ATH 6166 magnets.

B) If market moves below HVE 6068 with bearish internals/delta, sell towards YHOD 6045 YVAH 6011 GAP 5988 and YVAL 5968 magnets.

Reminder: Rollover day. Pace of the Roll is around 90%. I'll begin quoting /ESU25 (Sep 2025) after the NYSE opening bell. Usually rollover days show big divergences between Stocks vs. Futures, so try to play these days on defensive mode. Setups that usually work well, may fail completely. 

Note: Overnight inventory is 100% bullish. The expected action is a counter-auction. Failure to see the counter-auction would be an indication of potential bearish trend day. Market opens above value and if it begins to trade within value, VAR comes into play.

Market Movers

10:30 ET Trump at G7
12:30 ET Trump at G7
13:00 ET 20Yr Auction

Follow Twitter updates using TweetDeck old version.
Follow news and listen to order flow at FinancialJuice.

Questions via private twitter direct message (RTH)