ADP decline

Outlook 07/02: Stock futures turn negative after unexpected decline in private payrolls data. The private sector lost 33,000 jobs last month, according to the latest report by ADP. That marks the first monthly decline in ADP’s payrolls report since March 2023. To be sure, the ADP report has a lackluster record predicting the government’s monthly jobs report, which is due out Thursday. The market may also be taking some solace in growing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month. The CME poll shows a roughly 23% chance of the central bank lowering rates at its July meeting, up from 20% a day before.

ESU25 (SEP2025): YVAH 6255 YPOC 6247 YVAL 6239 GAP 6245

SPX Strikes Call Wall 6230 (/ES 6280) Put Wall 6180 (/ES 6230)

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed balanced, but overnight printed a new ATH , but after ADP data is moving back to previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:

A) If market moves above YVAL 6239 with bullish internals/delta, buy towards YVAH 6255 and ATH-ON 6270 magnet.

B) If market moves below YVAL 6239 with bearish internals/delta, sell towards YLOD 6227 and GAP 6220 magnet.

Note: Market opens inside value. Don't be 'too anxious'. Stay patient. You don’t have to be the first. Bad trades occur when you try to force things to happen. Remember that new record high has been printed overnight, so it's still pending to be revisited at regular trading hours.

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