Second Half

Outlook 07/01: Stock futures fell early Tuesday to kick off the second half of 2025 after the SP500. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at 9:30 a.m. ET at the European Central Bank’s Forum on Central Banking in Portugal. Powell said last week that he expects policymakers will keep monetary policy on hold until there’s more clarity on the impact of tariffs on prices. Traders are also looking ahead to the SP Global Purchasing Managers’ Index at 9:45 a.m. ET, which will give investors a read on the activity in the manufacturing sector, as well as the ISM manufacturing report at 10 a.m. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will also be released Tuesday morning.

ESU25 (SEP2025): YVAH 6251 YPOC 6239 YVAL 6233 GAP 6246

SPX Strikes Call Wall 6204 (/ES 6258) Put Wall 6142 (/ES 6196)

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed balanced, and overnight continues on that way, moving within previous value/range, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:

A) If market moves above YVAL 6233 with bullish internals/delta, buy towards GAP 6246 magnet YVAH 6251 and ATH 6265.

B) If market moves below YVAL 6233 with bearish internals/delta, sell towards ONL 6227 and GAP 6220 magnet.

Note: Market opens inside value. Don't be 'too anxious'. Stay patient. You don’t have to be the first. Bad trades occur when you try to force things to happen. 

Market Movers

09:30 Powell, Lagarde, Bailey Speak
10:45 US S&P Manufacturing PMI Final
10:00 Trump Visits Detention Facility
10:00 US JOLTS Job Openings
10:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI 
10:00 US Construction Spending 
12:05 Trump at Roundtable Discussion

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