CPI data

Outlook 08/12: Stock futures rise on tame inflation data. July’s consumer price index came in as expected, with headline rising 0.1% on the month and the annual inflation rate landing at 3.4%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, advanced 0.2% last month and 2.5% on the year. The annual rate for both headline and core CPI marked a slight decrease from June. In-line inflation will keep the ‘no need to hike rates’ narrative that took hold after last week’s jobs report intact. There will be another round of inflation data before the September FOMC meeting, so the storyline could still change. But unless those numbers tell a much different story, the Fed will likely still be in a position to leave rates unchanged next month.

ESU26 (Sep2026): YVAH 7780 YPOC 7752 YVAL 7743 GAP 7752

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bimodla bearish, but overnight, after CPI, looks bullish, moving above value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:

A) If market remains above YVAH 7780 with bullish internal/delta, buy towards YHOD 7795 ATH 7820 and PBT 7827 magnet.

B) If market moves below YVAH 7780 with bearish internal/delta, sell towards YPOC-GAP 7752 and YVAL-VAR 7743 magnets.

Note: If market opens above value and it begins to trade within value, VAR bearish setup comes in play.

Market Movers

10:30 EIA Crude Inventories
13:00 10-Year Note auction
14:00 Federal Budget Balance

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