Jackson Hole

Outlook 08/22: Stock futures rise slightly Friday ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. Investors will be seeking clues on the path forward for monetary policy. Investors are looking forward to Powell’s speech hoping to gain clarity on the interest rate outlook. Markets were last pricing in a 70% chance of a quarter-point cut at the September meeting. Recently, the prospect of lower interest rates helped bolster parts of the market that have missed out on this year’s rally, with investors dumping megacap tech for small caps and value plays. However, a more hawkish outlook from Powell could throw cold water on the market.

ESU25 (SEP2025): YVAH 6400 YPOC 6387 YVAL 6382 GAP 6391

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bearish (PBT 6357), but overnight looks bullish (PBT 6438), moving a few ticks above previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:

A) If market remains above YVAH 6400 with bullish internals/delta, buy towards YHOD 6419 and PBT-MFE 6439 magnet.

B) If market moves below YVAH 6400 with bearish internals/delta, sell towards YVAL-VAR 6382 and PBT-HVE 6357 magnets.

Note: This AM could be a high volatility session, so your first trading rule is 'manage your risk'. I recommend to stay aside or trade small size using micro futures until the market recovers a 'normal' regime. It's Friday and traders who have made losses that week will likely take large risks to try and end the week with a profit. Try to be calm and focus on the market rather than thinking about your account.

Market Movers

10:00 ET Fed’s Chair Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole 

11:30 ET Fed’s Hammack to appear on CNBC

12:00 ET Trump makes an announcement

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