OPEX Friday

Outlook 08/15: Stock futures rise, heads for big weekly gain after solid retail sales data. Consumers kept spending in July despite worries that potentially higher prices from tariffs might hold down demand. Retail sales increased 0.5% for the month, according to Commerce Department data that is adjusted for seasonal factors but not inflation. Excluding auto-related items, sales rose 0.3%. Both were exactly in line with estimates. Motor vehicle and parts sales jumped 1.6% on the month while furniture and home furnishings receipts grew 1.4%. Miscellaneous retailers saw a drop of 1.7% while building materials and home and garden centers fell 1%. On a year-over-year basis, sales increased 3.9%.

ESU25 (SEP2025): YVAH 6493 YPOC 6486 YVAL 6475 GAP 6481

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bullish (PBT 6516), and overnight continues on that way, moving above previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:

A) If market remains above YVAH 6493 with bullish internals/delta, buy towards ONH 6508 and PBTs 6516-6525 magnets.

B) If market moves below YVAH 6493 with bearish internals/delta, sell towards GAP 6581 and YVAL-VAR 6475 magnets.

Note: Remember that new record high has been printed overnight, so it's still pending to be revisited at regular hours. Market opens above value and if it begins to trade within value, VAR setup comes in play. It's OPEX day, which refers to the monthly expiration of stock options. The event can lead to higher volatility and more trading volumes, with high-frequency traders trying to take advantage for quick arbitrages. 

Market Movers

10:00 ET University of Michigan Sentiment
14:30 ET Trump-Putin Summit

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