Outlook 08/14: Stock futures drop 200 points after July’s wholesale inflation is much hotter than expected. Investors were left feeling disappointed after July’s producer price index reading indicated that such a rate cut is far from guaranteed. Wholesale prices rose 0.9% on the month, much more than the 0.2% economists were expecting. The index had come in flat in June. Wholesale prices can be a leading indicator for consumer prices. Some traders were looking past this PPI number because the report showed the increase was driven by a large gain in “portfolio management,” along with airfares. Without those factors the figures would have been much closer to estimates. Despite the higher inflation number, fed funds futures were pricing in about 93% odds of a rate cut in September, only slightly lower from the day prior. The futures, however, did remove any chance of a half-point cut.
ESU25 (SEP2025): YVAH 6487 YPOC 6482 YVAL 6470 GAP 6487
/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed balanced, but overnight, after PPI, looks more bearish (LH/LL), moving below previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:
