CPI data

Outlook 12/18: Stock futures jump after lighter-than-expected CPI. November consumer price index report showed that the headline annual inflation rate was 2.7%. The 12-month rate for core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was 2.6%. Economists had expected the rate for the headline measure and core CPI to come in at 3.1% and 3%, respectively. The report, which didn’t include month-over-month percent changes, was pushed back from its original release date of Dec. 10.  CBOE 0DTEs flipping positive to negative gamma created relatively unstable intraday conditions featuring several “shake-out” moves. A break below SPX 6,800 flipped to negative gamma and likely accelerate a move toward 6,700-6,600 into Friday’s expiration. However, after CPI data, market tries to recover postive gamma ahead Friday OPEX.

ESH26 (Mar2026): YVAH 6840 YPOC 6792 YVAL 6775 GAP 6794

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bearish (PBT 6700), but overnight, after CPI, looks bullish, still moving within previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:

A) If market moves above HVE-YVAH 6840 with bullish internals/delta, buy towards HVE 6865 and HVE-PBT 6900 magnet.

B) If market moves below HVE-YVAH 6840 with bearish internals/delta, sell towards GAP 6794 magnet and YVAL 6775.

Note: We're into rollover and usually rollover days show big divergences between Stocks vs. Futures, so This week less is more because setups that usually work well, may fail completely.

Market Movers

13:00 ET US sells $24 bln 5-Year TIPS
13:30 ET Trump Signs Executive Order

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