Triple witching

Outlook 12/19: Stock futures rise as AI trade tries to end year on high note. Oracle, Nvidia and Micron climb in premarket after recent volatility. Today could see volatile market activity as options on three types of securities are set to expire on the same day, an event known as “triple witching.” More than $2 trillion in notional options exposure is set to expire this Friday. At 9:30 AM ET we'll see ~$1.8tn delta notional of SPX expire, and at 4pm another ~$500bn of ETF's & single stocks expire. CBOE 0DTEs flipping positive to negative gamma created relatively unstable intraday conditions featuring several “shake-out” moves. 76% Calls over 24% Puts, suggest a bullish Friday but a break below SPX 6,782 flipped to negative gamma and could accelerate a move toward 6,700-6,600. 

ESH26 (Mar2026): YVAH 6854 YPOC 6838 YVAL 6820 GAP 6822

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed balance, and overnight continues on that way, still moving within previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:

A) If market moves above HVE-Gamma LIS 6840 with bullish internals/delta, buy towards HVE-PBT 6900 magnet.

B) If market moves below HVE-Gamma LIS 6840 with bearish internals/delta, sell towards GAPs 6822-6794 magnets.

Note: Today's triple witching day, which refers to the simultaneous expiration of stock options, market index options and market index futures. The event can lead to higher volatility and more trading volumes, with high-frequency traders trying to take advantage for quick arbitrage opportunities. It happens four times a year with much of the increases in activity taking place during the first hour (80%) and last hour (20%) both known as the "witching hours." 

Market Movers

10:00 ET University of Michigan Sentiment 
10:00 ET US Existing Home Sales

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