GDP report

Outlook 12/23: Stock futures fall sharply after much stronger-than-expected GDP report. The report, postponed from Oct. 30 due government shutdown, might have spooked investors into believing an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in early 2026 is less likely. In fact, following the report’s release, fed funds futures traders increased their bets a bit that the central bank would hold rates steady at its January and March meetings. The New York Stock Exchange will close early on Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET on Christmas Eve and will be closed Thursday for Christmas Day.

ESH26 (Mar2026): YVAH 6934 YPOC 6930 YVAL 6919 GAP 6931

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bullish (PBT 6959), but overnight session, after GDP data, looks bearish, moving below previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:

A) If market moves above YVAL 6919 with bullish internals/delta, buy towards GAP 6931 and YVAH-VAR 6934 all magnets.

B) If market moves below YVAL 6919 with bearish internals/delta, sell towards HVE 6908 YLOD 6900 and GAP 6890 magnet.

Note: If market opens below value and it begins to trade within value, VAR setup comes in play. Keep in mind that MMs opened a massive 47k 0DTE position at 6905 x 6850. If these walls are broken we could see gamma squeezes on both sides.

Market Movers

10:00 ET US CB Consumer Confidence (Dec)

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