CPI data

Outlook 01/13: Stock futures tick higher Tuesday after lighter-than-expected core inflation data affirmed traders bets that the Federal Reserve would lower interest rates this year. Stock futures received a boost after the latest consumer price index report showed that core CPI (excludes food and energy) rose 0.2% on the month and 2.6% on the year. That was below the 0.3% and 2.8% estimated. Eyes were on the latest CPI data after the December jobs report reflected a slightly weakening, yet stable, labor market that likely encouraged the Fed to hold off on interest rate cuts. Fed funds futures are pricing in two quarter point cuts this year, starting in June.

ESH26 (Mar2026): YVAH 7023 YPOC 7017 YVAL 6992 GAP 7016

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bullish (PBT 7045), and overnight, after CPI data, looks balanced, moving within previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:

A) If market moves above YVAH 7023 with bullish internals/delta, buy towards ONH-ATH 7036 and PBT 7045 magnet.

B) If market moves below YVAH 7023 with bearish internals/delta, sell towards ONL 6998 YVAL 6992 and YLOD 6950.

Note: If market opens above value and it begins to trade within value, VAR setup comes in play. Keep in mind new record high has been printed overnight, so it's still pending to be revisited at regular hours.

Market Movers

13:00 ET US 30-Year Bond Auction
10:00 ET Fed’s Musalem speaks
12:30 ET Trump appearance
14:00 ET Trump remarks

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