Trump vs Powell

Outlook 01/12: Stock futures fell Monday after the Department of Justice opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, an apparent escalation by President Donald Trump in his attempt to pressure the central bank. Powell confirmed in an unusual direct video statement Sunday evening that federal prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation related to his Senate Banking Committee testimony on the renovation of Fed office buildings. The market has seen this before and doesn’t like it. It’s not about Powell at this point, it’s about the independence of the Fed, so when news like this hits, the reaction is to sell off.

ESH26 (Mar2026): YVAH 7017 YPOC 7004 YVAL 6982 GAP 7004

/ES Plan: Last session market closed bullish (PBT 7045), but Sunday's reopening looks bearish, moving below previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:

A) If market moves above YLOD 6956 with bullish internals/delta, buy towards YVAL 6982 and GAP 7004 YVAH-VAR 7017 magnets.

B) If market moves below YLOD 6956 with bearish internals/delta, sell towards ONL 6950 HVE 6935 and GAP 6903 magnet.

Note: If market opens below value and it begins to trade within value, VAR setup comes in play.

Market Movers

11:30 ET US sells $58 bln 3-Year Notes
13:00 ET US sells $39 bln 10-Year Notes
12:30 ET Fed’s Bostic speaks
12:45 ET Fed’s Barkin speaks
15:30 ET Trump in Signing Time

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