Excess High

Outlook 04/17: Stock futures rose on Friday after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open” on the heels of a ceasefire announcement between Israel and Lebanon. In a post on X published Friday, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi wrote, “In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran.” President Donald Trump had announced Thursday that the leaders of Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire. 11 days, we got to new all-time highs. There's nothing wrong with that, but you know the old saying: 'Buy the rumor, Sell the news'.

ESM26 (Jun2026): YVAH 7078 YPOC 7070 YVAL 7061 GAP 7075 

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed balanced, but overnight printed a new ATH excess, moving above previous value/range, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:

A) If market remains above ON-VAH 7125 with bullish internals/delta, buy towards ONH-ATH pending 7148 magnet.

B) If market moves below ON-VAH 7125 with bearish internals/delta, sell towards GAP-YPOC 7075-70 magnets.

Note: Overnight is 100% bullish. The expected action is a counter-auction. Failure to see the counter-auction would be an indication of potential bullish trend day. Keep in mind that overnight action prints an excess high that opens the gate for a major reversal. 10AM 1st bearish institutional test will be key.

Market Movers

11:30 Fed's Daly Speaks

12:15 Fed's Barkin Speaks

13:00 US Baker Hughes Oil 

14:00 Fed's Waller Speaks

16:00 Monthly OPEX

Follow news and listen to order flow at FinancialJuice.

Questions via private twitter direct message (RTH)