Outlook 04/20: Stock futures opened bearish on Sunday's reopening as tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated over the weekend with the seizure of an Iranian-flagged cargo ship. Despite of that, markets reject bearish open and reverse overnight. News flow from the Middle East was net negative over the weekend but the overall process still seems to be on a trajectory of deescalation. After we rallied for 12 days in a row on hopes for a deal, we ended the week very overbought on a short term basis. And now the situation with Iran is gotten even more complicated and uncertain on when this conflict will end and when the Strait will fully reopen without fear of attack. The only question with Monday trade, assuming news doesn’t change again, will be if the market triggers the pullback or not.
ESM26 (Jun2026): YVAH 7179 YPOC 7163 YVAL 7140 GAP 7165
/ES Plan: Last session market closed bullish (PBT 7210), but Sunday opening bearish and bounced, moving within previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:
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