CPI data

Outlook 07/14: Stock futures rise on Tuesday after June inflation data came in weaker than expected. Traders also assessed rising oil prices and a slew of corporate earnings releases. Consumer price index in June came in weaker than expected, falling 0.4% on the month. The annual inflation rate also declined to 3.5%. Economists had called for a 0.2% decline in June, expecting the inflation rate to come in at 3.8%. With easing inflation, expectations that the Federal Reserve would hike interest rates this year reduced following the release. Odds that the central bank would hike rates at its July meeting dropped to 17% from 42% the day prior. However, traders are still expecting a hike at the meeting in September, seeing a 63% chance that the target rate will be a quarter or half point higher.

ESU26 (Sep2026): YVAH 7609 YPOC 7596 YVAL 7569 GAP 7559

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bimodal bearish, but overnight, after CPI, looks bullish, still moving within previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:

A) If market remains above YVAL 7569 with bullish internals/delta, buy towards YPOC 7596 YVAH 7609 and GAP 7622 magnet.

B) If market moves below YVAL 7569 with bearish internals/delta, sell towards YLOD 7547 and GAPs 7559-7524 both magnets.

Note: Market opens inside value. Don't be 'too anxious'. Stay patient. You don’t have to be the first. Bad trades occur when you try to force things to happen. Wait for a yesterday's low value breakout or rejection.

Market Movers

10:00 Fed Chair Warsh Testify's at Committee
11:15 Trump Meets Iraq's PM al-Zaidi
12:40 Fed's Barr Speaks
13:00 Fed's Goolsbee Speaks
13:30 Fed's Cook Speaks
14:55 Fed's Bowman Speaks

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