Yields on fire

Outlook 08/18: Stock futures tick lower on Tuesday, pressured by a rise in Treasury yields amid concerns of persistent inflation and elevated oil prices. A pullback in semiconductor stocks also weighed on the broader market. The 30-year Treasury bond yield climbed more than 1 basis point to 5.323%, trading at levels not seen in nearly two decades. The yield on Monday hit its highest level since June 2007. As a rule of thumb for years, major rallies always end with Tys yields at record highs.

ESU26 (Sep2026): YVAH 7819 YPOC 7795 YVAL 7777 GAP 7767

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bearish, and overnight continues on that way (PBT 7691), moving below value/range, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:

A) If market moves above HVE 7736 with bullish internal/delta, buy towards GAP 7767 and YPOC-YVAH 7795-7819 magnets.

B) If market moves below HVE 7736 with bearish internal/delta, sell towards ONL 7716 and PBT-ETH 7691 GAP 7632 magnets.

Note: Overnight is 100% bearish. The expected action is a counter-auction. Failure to see the counter-auction would be an indication of potential bearish trend day. Keep in mind when gamma (/ES 7760) flips negative, MMs become trend followers, adding selling pressure.

Market Movers

10:00 Pending Home Sales

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