10yr decline

Outlook 09/03: Stock futures moved up on Thursday, while Treasury yields pulled back, as investors grew hopeful that the Federal Reserve may leave interest rates unchanged this month. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield last traded around 4.75%, seeing declines after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he’d be “inclined to support” holding rates steady barring any surprises in upcoming inflation data. On Wednesday, the yield hit its highest level since November 2023. Bets among fed funds futures traders that the central bank would raise rates in a couple weeks fell to 56% after his statement. That’s down from 66% a day ago.

ESU26 (Sep2026): YVAH 7691 YPOC 7678 YVAL 7665 GAP 7680 IVR 66

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bullish (PBT 7737), and overnight continues on that way, moving above value/range, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:

A) If market remains above YHOD-YVAH 7691 with bullish internal/delta, buy towards GAP 7721 and PBT 7737 magnets.

B) If market moves below YHOD-YVAH 7691 with bearish internal/delta, sell towards GAP 7680 and YVAL 7665 magnets.

Note: If market opens above value and it begins to trade within value, VAR bearish setup comes in play.

Market Movers

09:45 Services PMI 

10:00 ISM Services 

13:00 VP Vance Speaks

15:00 Fed's Hammack Speaks

15:55 Fed's Goolsbee Speaks

 

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