Outlook 11/24: The biggest shopping weekend of the year is here and 69% of Americans, an estimated 164M people, are planning to shop or are considering shopping during the holiday, according to the National Retail Federation. From a stock market perspective, history suggests this is a very good time for retail stocks. Since 2007, the week before Black Friday to a week after, the sector usually gains 5%.
/ES Value: YVAH 2598 YPOC 2597 YVAL 2595
/ES Plan: Market closed on Wednesday and Tuesday leaving bullish imbalanced (PBT 2602-2617). Overnight inventory is bullish (GBT 2606), moving above wednesday's value and printing new record high. As usual, so we've 2 options:
A) If market remains above YVAH 2598 with internals rising, try to be a buyer leaning on 2598-2600 towards GBTs 2606 and 2617. Failure to breakdown YVAH early is a signal of a strength.
B) If market starts to move below YVAH 2598 with internals falling, try to be a seller leaning on 2598 towards YVAL 2595 and LVN 2594. Failure to take out ONH early is a signal of weakness.
Tips: Watching at the bigger picture, new All Time High (ATH) doesn't show decent excess on it. Usually, market needs an excess high to call an end to the current bullish auction. Lack of excess is created by nervous longs who continually sell their positions on each test of current high of day. That action at highs is a sign that short term traders are in control and they are nervous at the top. They are weaker hands that are selling into strength, not feeling conviction to hold.
REMINDER: Today, U.S. Futures Markets will close at 1:15 PM ET.
Today's Economic Calendar
09:45 AM PMI Composite Flash
04:30 PM Money Supply
04:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
Link for Updates (Check it during RTH session)
Disclaimer: All information on this outlook is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice.
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