Outlook 11/22: Minutes of the last Fed meeting may keep a few traders at their desks until mid-afternoon before they bolt for the Thanksgiving holiday. The release is likely to assure an interest rate hike in mid-December, along with positive economic readings on hiring, unemployment and GDP hitting 3% in Q3. The only thing really worrying the central bank is persistently low inflation, with Janet Yellen saying yesterday that the Fed was "monitoring the situation very closely."
/ES Value: YVAH 2599 YPOC 2598 YVAL 2594.50
/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed leaving a bullish imbalanced (PBTs 2607-2617). Overnight inventory is balanced, moving within yesterday's value, so we've 2 options:
A) If market remains above YVAL-ONL 2594.50 with internals rising, try to be a buyer leaning on 2594.50-96.50-98.50 towards PBTs 2607 and 2617 Failure to breakdown ONL early is a signal of a strength.
B) If market starts to move below YVAL-ONL 2594.50 with internals falling, try to be a seller leaning on 2594.50 towards edge 2586 and GAP 2582.25 Failure to take out ONH early is a signal of weakness.
Tips: Watching at the bigger picture, last All Time High (ATH) doesn't show decent excess on it. Usually, market needs an excess high to call an end to the current bullish auction. Lack of excess is created by nervous longs who continually sell their positions on each test of current high of day. That action at highs is a sign that short term traders are in control and they are nervous at the top. They are weaker hands that are selling into strength, not feeling conviction to hold.
Today's Economic Calendar
09:45 AM Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM Consumer Sentiment
10:30 AM EIA Petroleum Inventories
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Inventory
02:00 PM FOMC minutes
Link for Updates (Check it during RTH session)
Disclaimer: All information on this outlook is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice.
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