Outlook 03/20: The market isn’t expecting any rate hikes at the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) meeting. According to the CME Group, investors are pricing in about a 98.7% chance that rates will stay unchanged at 2.25%-2.5% with a 1.3% chance that there will be a rate cut. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference will be the event’s highlight. Market watchers will be looking for clues on the the central bank’s future monetary policy path, as well as when it plans to complete its balance sheet normalization.
/ESM19 Value: YVAH 2854 YPOC 2850 YVAL 2842 GAP 2836
/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bearish and overnight continues on that way, moving below yesterday's value, so we've these options:
A) If market remains below LIS-HVE 2837 with bearish internals, sell towards GAP 2836 ONL 2828 LVN 2825 and HVEs 2819-2814-2808.
B) If market starts to move above LIS-HVE 2837 with bullish internals, buy towards ONH-HVE 2842 and HVEs 2846-2850-2857-2864-2867.
Tips: FOMC days are unique events that call for increased attention and a shift in tactics. It’s best to treat FOMC days as two separate sessions. The time before the announcement, which tends to involve a tightening price range and lower activity, which gives way to a sudden burst of volatility that continues into the close. Trade setups that work well in the morning session may fail completely in the afternoon session, resulting in significant losses. Here is a simple FOMC strategy.
Today's Economic Calendar
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
02:00 PM FOMC Announcement
02:30 PM Chairman Press Conference
Disclaimer: All information on this outlook is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice.
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