Outlook 05/01: U.S. stock index futures print new record high amid a robust earnings report from Apple, ongoing bets for a dovish Fed rate decision later today and hints of progress in U.S.-China trade talks. The FOMC is expected to leave borrowing costs unchanged as it maintains a "patient" monetary policy stance in the midst of a strategy rethink. It's a tough balancing act for Jerome Powell, who will want to avoid sounding too dovish, due to the strength of the U.S. economy and the fact financial conditions have improved considerably in the last months.
/ESM19 Value: YVAH 2945 YPOC 2940 YVAL 2935 GAP 2950.50
/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed balanced with record highs printed after Apple report. Overnight continues on that way but a bit balanced, moving a few ticks below yesterday's range, so we've these options:
A) If market remains below LIS-YHOD 2956 with bearish internals, sell towards GAP 2950.50 and HVEs 2943-2936-2924.
B) If market starts to move above YHOD 2956 with bullish internals, buy towards ONH-ATH 2961.25 and PBT 2965.
Notice: Most of Europe is off today for May Day so volume is pretty dead overnight and sluggish until the FOMC. It’s best to treat FOMC days as two separate sessions. The time before the announcement, which tends to involve a tightening price range and lower activity, which gives way to a sudden burst of volatility that continues into the close. Trade setups that work well in the morning session may fail completely in the afternoon session, resulting in significant losses. If you've a winner AM session, I suggest to avoid FOMC's PM 'cowboy' session.
Today's Economic Calendar
09:45 PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 Construction Spending
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
02:00 PM FOMC Announcement
02:00 PM J.Powell Press Conference
Disclaimer: All information on this outlook is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice.
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