Outlook 06/19: U.S. index futures entered a holding pattern overnight, steadying before the conclusion of today's crucial Fed meeting. It looks like the Fed is backed into a corner. A failure now to suggest a rate cut later this year, or a pivot back to even a neutral stance, could cause a violent selloff by markets, but if Jerome Powell does flag the plans, he will be accused of caving to President Trump, who has been relentless in excoriating the Fed and demanded that it reverse rate hikes made last year. Asked by reporters outside the White House yesterday if he wanted to demote Powell, Trump said "let's see what he does."
/ESU19 Value: YVAH 2932 YPOC 2926 YVAL 2921 GAP 2926.75
/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bullish but overnight more balanced, moving within yesterday's value, so today's options:
A) If market remains above LIS HVE 2924 with bullish internals, buy towards ONH 2930 HVEs 2936-2943 GAP 2947.50 and ATH 2961.25.
B) If market starts to move below 2924 with bearish internals, sell towards ONL 2921.75 HVEs 2918-2912-2908-2900 and GAP 2896.75
Tips: FOMC day. It’s best to treat FOMC days as two separate sessions. The time before the announcement, which tends to involve a tightening price range and lower activity. Trade setups that work well in the AM, may fail completely in the afternoon, resulting in significant losses. If you've a winner morning, I suggest to avoid FOMC 'cowboy' session.
Today's Economic Calendar
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
02:00 PM FOMC Announcement
02:30 PM Chairman Press Conference
Questions via @verniman direct message (RTH) or email (After Close).
Glossary of terms
