Outlook 06/17: U.S. stock index futures suggest modest gains at the open, as investors adopt a cautious stance on risk heading into this FOMC week gathering. While market expectations point to an interest rate cut this year, most observers expect rates to stay unchanged at this meeting, although eyes will be on the wording of Jerome Powell's policy statement, as well as the dot plot. Bets on central bank action have underpinned stocks in recent weeks, even as manufacturing data continues to suggest that the U.S.-China trade dispute is having knock-on effects across the globe.
/ESU19 Value: YVAH 2894 YPOC 2890 YVAL 2886 GAP 2894.75
/ES Plan: On Friday market closed balanced but overnight looks slight bearish (GBT 2892), moving above Friday's value, so today's options:
A) If market remains below HVE 2900 with bearish internals, sell towards ONL 2895 GBT 2892 HVEs 2888-2883 GAP 2881.50 and PBT 2877.
B) If market starts to move above HVE 2900 with bullish internals, buy towards ONH 2904.75 HVE 2907 PBT 2909 and HVE 2907-2912-2918.
Expiration Week. Pace of the Roll now is around 60% so I'm quoting /ESU19 September contract. Usually the expiration week show big divergences between Stocks vs. Futures, so be careful since setups that usually work, may fail completely. Don't force trades. Less is more.
Today's Economic Calendar
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index
4:00 PM Treasury International Capital
Questions via @verniman direct message (RTH) or email (After Close).
Glossary of terms
