Outlook 09/17: U.S. stock index futures are pointing to an only modestly lower open, currently down 0.2%. The FOMC will also start its two-day policy meeting this morning against the backdrop of fading hopes for an interest rate cut. The Fed Funds Futures market on Monday was pricing in a 34% chance that the Fed will stay put on rates; the probability was zero a month ago and just 5.4% a week ago, according to the CME.
/ESZ19 Value: YVAH 3002 YPOC 3000 YVAL 2996 GAP 3002.25
/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bullish but overnight auction seems a bit bearish, moving below yeterday's value, so today's options:
A) If market remains below LIS YVAL 2996 with bearish internals, sell towards ONL 2993.75 PBT-HVE 2988 and HVEs 2983-2972.
B) If market moves above LIS 2996 with bullish internals, buy towards GAP 3002.25 HVE 3006 ONH 3007 GAP 3009 and HVE 3018.
Note: We're into the expiration week. Usually expiration week shows big divergences between Stocks vs. Futures, so be careful since setups that usually work, may fail completely. Don't force trades. Less is more.
Today's Economic Calendar
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index
04:00 PM Treasury International Capital
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