Scene of the Crime

Outlook 12/22: U.S. stock futures rise Friday after cooler inflation data, with stocks heading for an eighth-straight winning week extending its year-end rally. We're into the SoC setup, zone where a unexpected impulse move was initiated and is therefore susceptible to be visited again. The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge came in less than expected, showing a rise of 3.2% annual rate in November. Economists were anticipating a rise of 0.1% month over month, and 3.3% year over year. Durable goods orders, which include long-lasting items such as airplanes and appliances, ticked up 5.4% higher in November, beating the 2% estimated. The U.S. stock market will be closed on Monday for Christmas.

/ESH24 (MAR 2024): YVAH 4791 YPOC 4785 YVAL 4769 GAP 4795.75

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bullish (PBT 4817), and overnight continues on that way, moving above previous value/range, so these're the opening and initial balance options for today:

A) If market remains above YHOD 4798 with bullish internals, buy towardsHVE 4810 PBT 4817 SoC 4823 and ATH 4830.

B) If market moves below YHOD 4798 with bearish internals, sell towards YVAH 4791 ONL-YPOC 4785 and YVAL 4769.

Note: Overnight inventory is 100% bullish. The expected action is a counter-auction; failure to see the counter-auction would be an indication of potential trend day towards Wednesday's liquidation level (SoC). If market opens above value and if it begins to trade within value, VAR comes into play. 

Holidays weeks so volume is lower than usual. If market opens inside value let the market lead. You don’t have to be the first. Bad trades occur when you try to force things to happen.

Market Movers

10:00 New Home Sales
10:00 Consumer Sentiment
1:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count
SIFMA Early Close at 2:00 PM

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