Outlook 06/18: Stock futures inched higher on Wednesday as traders monitor the latest developments in the Middle East and brace for the Federal Reserve’s latest rate policy decision. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision is due at 2 p.m. ET. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady, but investors will be keeping a close eye on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting comments. Traders are also watching for policymakers’ forecast on rate policy, as the Federal Open Market Committee will be sharing members’ “dot plot” of rate expectations. In other economic news, initial unemployment claims for the week ending June 14 totaled a seasonally adjusted 245,000, down 5,000 from the prior week and right around the estimate for 246,000. New housing construction hit its lowest level in five years for May in more bad news for the industry.
Rollover ESU25 (SEP2025): YVAH 6080 YPOC 6068 YVAL 6046 GAP 6038
/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bullish (PBT 6180), but overnight looks slight bullish, moving within previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:
A) If market remains above YVAL 6046 with bullish internals/delta, buy towards GAP 6094 GAP 6154 ATH 6166 and PBT 6180 all magnets.
B) If market moves below YVAL 6046 with bearish internals/delta, sell towards ONL 6018 HVEs 6013-6000 and Rollover GAP 5988 magnet.
Reminder: I'm quoting /ESU25 (Sep 2025) after September volume is greater than June. Usually rollover days show big divergences between Stocks vs. Futures, so try to play these days on defensive mode. Setups that usually work well, may fail completely.
Note1:
FOMC days are two separate sessions. The AM session tends to involve a tightening price range and lower activity. Trade setups that work well in the AM, may fail completely in the afternoon, resulting in significant losses. Today is NOT the day to trade aggressively. On these high volatility days, a lot of money could be made and lost but your first trading rule is 'manage your risk', sizing small with less /ES emini contracts or using /MES micro futures.
Market Movers
10:30 ET US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
14:00 ET US FOMC Decision. Forecast: Unchanged
14:30 ET FOMC Press Conference with Chair Powell
Follow Twitter updates using
TweetDeck old version.
Questions via private twitter direct message (RTH)
