Outlook 09/04: Stock futures are little changed on Thursday as weak private payrolls data raised the stakes for Friday’s official jobs report. The ADP private payrolls report showed an increase of 54,000 in August. Economists had expected private employers to add 75,000 jobs. The figure is also less than the revised 106,000 in July. The reaction was limited as investors reasoned that the recent ADP data was weak enough for the Federal Reserve to justify a September rate cut, but not soft enough to herald a recession. Traders increased their bets that the central bank would cut on Sept. 17, with fed funds futures trading following ADP’s report now indicating a 97.4% chance of a rate cut. Traders will additionally be eyeing the release of August’s ISM non-manufacturing PMI reading, due out at 10am ET. Economists are expecting a reading of 50.8, up from 50.1 in the prior period.
ESU25 (SEP2025): YVAH 6459 YPOC 6446 YVAL 6438 GAP 6460
/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bullish (above value) and overnight continues on that way, moving above previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:
