Outlook 05/21: Stock futures are lower as oil prices tick higher along with Treasury yields. WTI futures were up 2.9% at $101.04 per barrel. The oil spike was followed with a move higher in Treasury yields, as traders grow fearful or rising inflation. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield climbed 5 basis points to 4.615%. Higher long-end yields and increasingly attractive real rates are also beginning to create competition for equities again, particularly as positioning and momentum become more crowded beneath the surface. None of this changes long-term bullish bias, but after a 17% rally off the lows, the long/short risk has become asymmetric. The near-term setup now warrants more tactical caution.
ESM26 (Jun2026): YVAH 7456 YPOC 7439 YVAL 7407 GAP 7448
/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bullish (PBT 7520), but overnight turns bearish (PBT 7375), moving within previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:
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